Profitable Betfair Trading Strategies for Football
Football is undoubtedly one of the most popular sports in any exchange. Due to its popularity, many strategies have emerged over the years. Unfortunately, while some of these strategies work well, most of them are not profitable in the long run. Nevertheless, newbies blindly follow them, and when they lose money, they say trading is a scam.
Well, say no more because we have come to your rescue. You will find numerous Betfair Trading Strategies from TheTrader for several sports. And here, we are focusing on the most profitable football trading strategies you can use on Betfair.
Believe us when we say these strategies are tested and trusted. They come from years of experience in the exchanges, and if you stick with them, you will experience true profitability. So let's get into it!
Laying the Draw
You could already make a little sense of this strategy from its name. Laying the draw in a football game implies that you are betting against a draw as the match's outcome. It sounds easy, doesn't it? But, before you get all excited, there is more to it than laying the draw of any random match.
You need to be very selective of the game you choose for this strategy. Before settling to make research, ensure that the game has good liquidity. Liquidity is synonymous with money in Betfair exchange, so you might not get your lay bet matched if there is little liquidity.
So apart from high liquidity, what should you look out for before laying the draw?
- Higher scoring teams with attacking gameplay. These types of teams tend to score a lot more.
- Preferable matches with heavy favourites. You will find matches like that in games with league toppers versus bottom teams.
Although some fixtures outside these conditions may win, finding ones that satisfy them gives you a higher probability.
You should also curb greed while laying the draw. Once a team scores, you should be locking your profits or even exit your position.
Backing the Loser
Backing the loser sounds strange, doesn't it? But, what most traders do is to either back the winner or lay the loser. So, how then is it possible to back the loser?
This strategy works well in games with favourites of around 1.5 or lesser odds. When the match commences, you want the underdog team to score the first goal; an early goal is better. In short, the goal is against the run of play.
Since the supposed favourites are down, their odds will rise. And depending on the time on the clock and other factors contributing to their wins, it may rise to as high as 2.50 or even more. So technically, they are the loser for the moment, and that is when you back them.
There is a high probability of the favourites making a comeback in games like that. So it is only a matter of time before things swing in your favour.
Under 2.5 Goals
Under 2.5 Goals is another profitable strategy you can use for Football on Betfair. So, how does it work? First, let's give you a blueprint of how the market moves.
Every football match starts with zero goal, and the longer the game stays goalless, the better it is for you with this strategy. After the kickoff, the market begins to trend downwards. The lower it gets, the more profits for under 2.5 Goals traders. As the minutes progress, if none of the team scores, it continues the downward trend, and you are in profit.
However, that is not all to this strategy. You cannot sit on your hands and keep watching the profits tick. Immediately after a team score, the market will begin an upward trend. This is where the problem arises, and it is what you need to avoid.
Several traders have their methods around this system. Some prefer to wait the whole first half before taking profits. Others may take it in percentages, like 10% profits after the first ten minutes and 10% after the next 15 minutes. Finally, some other traders prefer scalping, so they are only after a few ticks.
What is most important is not to allow greed to overwhelm you. Don't wait, hoping that the game will end as you want it because football matches are unpredictable, especially in the last minutes.
While every match cannot always end in under 2.5, some games you can select will give you a better probability. Let's give you a little pointer.
- Matches, where bottom table teams face each other, have a high probability of ending with little goals. Therefore, chances for a goalless draw are also high.
- Aim for teams with very defensive play. Defensive teams tend to score less and prevent goals from coming in; they suit the under 2.5 goals strategy.
These two pointers will not give you a 100% win rate but would make you profitable. By all means, avoid matches with heavy favourites. Teams that are heavy favourites tend to score more.
Trading Team News
All other strategies seem to revolve around when the game is live. How about a strategy before the game starts? Trading team news is a great pre-match trading strategy that works for Football in Betfair.
Since this strategy relies on news, you need to do some homework before you trade. Monitor news that can cause price movements. Injuries and changes in management are major news that can make prices move.
It starts from the rumours; wait for the official team announcement once you start hearing the rumours. At the same time, prepare to trade pre-match.
Most football leagues release the lineups one hour before the game; it is also one of the best times for pre-match football trading. Most times, when the lineup is not what most fans anticipate, we also witness pre-match movement, so you can capitalize on it!
For this strategy, you are not chasing huge numbers. Since the match is not live, movement is limited. So, when you get a few ticks, secure your profits and move on to the next.
Conclusion
Football trading can be fun and profitable if you approach it with the right strategies. We outlined four of the most profitable strategies you can use in the Betfair market. Of course, you don't have to use it all at once. Instead, you should take it one step at a time and find what works for you.
