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  • July 20, 2024

Betting Strategies: How to Use Statistics to Win in Football Betting



Using statistics can help you make better decisions and increase your chances of winning in the cutthroat world of football betting. This manual explores a variety of betting techniques that make use of statistical analysis to pinpoint winning chances. We will examine how you may utilise past performance, probability computations, and trend analysis to make well-informed bets, from comprehending the fundamentals of statistical data to using complex prediction models. 

This thorough review will provide you with the information and resources you need to get an advantage when betting on football, regardless of whether you're a novice keen to pick up the basics or an expert gambler trying to hone your strategy.

What Statistics are Used in Football Betting?

A number of important facts are vital in forming betting strategies when it comes to football. Metrics including team performance history, head-to-head records, player form and fitness, possession percentages, and goal averages are often examined by bettors. When predicting the possible results of games, advanced metrics like as shots on target, defensive stability, and anticipated goals (xG) are also essential. 

Understanding these football statistics may be helpful for all casino games list that you know, giving players a more analytical approach to any betting situation. This is especially true for people who prefer gambling from a wider viewpoint.

10 Successful Statistical Betting Strategies

1. The Fibonacci betting system

A mathematical sequence is used by the Fibonacci betting technique to raise bets following losses. The idea behind this method is that ultimately, a bigger victory will offset your losses. In markets where the odds are greater, like draw betting, it is frequently utilised. Bettors who adhere to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13...) raise their stake in accordance with the sequence following each loss and decrease it following a victory.

2. All-in on odds at 1.20 strategy

Using this method, all of the available betting money is allocated to events with odds of 1.20. Making consistent earnings from reasonably safe wagers is the goal. Even if there are little rewards on each wager, winning consistently may have a big cumulative impact. But it takes self-control and a solid grasp of which events are actually "safe" bets.

3. The 1-3-2-6 system

The goal of the progressive betting strategy known as the 1-3-2-6 method is to maximise winnings while hot streaks last. When a bet wins consecutively, bettors wager 1, 3, 2, and 6 units in succession. Restarting the sequence is necessary after a single defeat. The objective of the strategy is to profit from winning streaks while keeping a disciplined and organised betting style.

4. The Kelly formula

The best bet size for a sequence of bets is calculated using the Kelly Formula, also known as the Kelly Criterion. Using your betting advantage (the advantage you believe you have over the bookmaker), this formula determines what proportion of your bankroll you should bet. The Kelly Criterion optimises the growth of your bankroll over time by maximising the logarithm of wealth through a risk-reward balance.

5. Dutching in sports betting

Dutching involves betting on multiple outcomes in a single event to guarantee a similar amount of profit no matter which bet wins. This strategy requires calculating the correct stake to place on each outcome based on their odds to ensure a balanced return. It's particularly useful in horse racing but can be applied in any sport where the probabilities can be accurately assessed.

6. Money Race Betting

Money Race Betting is a dynamic betting strategy in which bettors choose events with a reputation for high paying and erratic outcomes. Bettors wager on sequences or combinations of events that have the potential to pay out large sums of money. This tactic frequently entails in-depth statistical research and a thorough knowledge of the sport in order to spot patterns or trends that others might miss.

7. Early cashout in sports betting

Bettors can settle their bets before to the end of a sporting event by utilising early cashout options. This may be used to reduce losses when things seem grim or to lock in gains when things are going well. When using early cashout strategically, it's important to carefully evaluate the game and the betting odds in real time, weighing prospective benefits against potential losses.

8. Specialize in a league

By focusing on a particular league, bettors may have a comprehensive knowledge of the clubs, players, and typical game dynamics in that league. This specific knowledge may be turned into a betting advantage as it helps the gambler make more accurate predictions and spot value bets that less knowledgeable bettors might overlook.

9. Betting on late goals

This tactic is all about betting on goals that are scored in the last few minutes of a match. Due to the greater odds and known scenarios when teams push for a winning or equalising goal, late goal betting may be successful. To make this plan work, statistical analysis of team behaviour in the final phases of matches is essential.

10. 1X on home outsiders strategy

It may be profitable to wager on home teams that are viewed as outsiders (typically denoted by the symbol "1X" in betting options, which stands for a home team victory or draw). Home teams typically perform better because of the comfortable surroundings and local fan base. In the event that the home underdogs manage to earn a victory or draw, this method may provide significant profits when paired with the underdog designation, which usually gives better odds.

How Do You Find the Best Odds in Betting?

In order to get the greatest odds while betting, one must frequently combine thorough study with the use of specific business insights, occasionally derived from well-known rumours. Experienced gamblers frequently listen for rumours that bookmakers are giving higher odds as a result of special offers, mistakes, or adjustments to betting lines brought about by abrupt changes in the market. It's critical to keep accounts with several bookies and frequently examine their offers in order to take advantage of these chances. 

Furthermore, this procedure may be streamlined by employing odds comparison services, which let bettors swiftly determine and take action on the best odds. Participating in online betting forums and groups may also yield helpful advice and notifications about potential favourable odds locations, frequently based on the collective experiences and betting tactics of other participants.