It’s no secret that football is the most popular sport on the planet. Billions of people enjoy watching soccer live and on TV. Countries where soccer has traditionally struggled such as North America are starting to embrace the game, and the biggest stars are even eyeing up the league.
Lionel Messi, potentially the biggest name in football, recently transferred to Inter Miami CF. And big money is attracting stars to end their careers in Saudi Arabia too.
Football or soccer fans actively look for ways to make the game more exciting. Fantasy football leagues are run online and in more modest groups of friends. There are numerous video football games. Plus, sports betting allows fans to have a flutter on domestic and international leagues.
There is no guarantee of winning when gambling on soccer. But, there are statistics and data that should be analysed.
Where can you find soccer statistics?
Football, or soccer depending on your preference and possibly your geographical location, is a highly entertaining sport played all over. Kids develop soccer skills by playing on the streets and in parks. Schools throughout Europe have football on the sports curriculum. And if you’re very lucky and talented, you could play semi-pro or professionally.
For those who enjoy soccer primarily as a spectator, absorbing facts can be fascinating. Keen fans love to read articles on the latest transfer gossip and team rumours. Those that like the added frisson of a wager, monitor and analyse statistics.
Fortunately, statistics such as the most winning teams can be found on tipster pages and football blogs. That sort of data can help betting fans decide on where their money should be placed. But, selecting the first goalscorer, or the winning team, can depend on many factors.
What statistics are important when placing bets on soccer?
Media and news sites will relay results and recent forms. But, some people prefer to go to dedicated football websites where tips and recommendations are made alongside historical and current data.
Some people prefer to bet from the heart. Yet, statistics may possibly give an extra edge. Although, one of the more exciting aspects of football is its constant ability to surprise.
Even the biggest teams such as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have managed to suffer humiliating losses that few would have predicted. The biggest win in Premier League history is 9 - 0. A score managed by Manchester Utd twice. However, Liverpool fans will be far more likely to remember the 7 - 0 drubbing they handed out to The Red Devils not so long ago.
But, these are anomalies. If you’re interested in having a bet on soccer, you might want to look at the stats a little deeper.
Statistic one: Team form
This is a basic statistic to look at. Fundamental even. Teams often go on winning runs, and they often have losing streaks too. The 2003 - 2004 season saw Arsenal go undefeated and earn the nickname ‘Invincibles’. Benfica too has enjoyed a couple of seasons completely undefeated.
In these extreme cases, team form is a major factor. But, more important is to be able to identify upward and downward trajectories for clubs. Taking a specific timeline and looking at the number of wins, draws, and losses may help you to predict a result.
Basically, you are looking for consistency. Goal difference is very important too. Are teams winning comfortably, or is the winning streak actually quite fragile?
2 Goals against and for
Goals conceded and scored reflect the capabilities of a team at both ends of the pitch. If you wish to forecast a result, you need to study the attacking and defensive capabilities of teams.
Key metrics to look at:
- Goals scored per game
- Goals let in per game
- Shots on target per game
Depending on your betting style, you may wish to choose teams with tight defences. Or target those who have high goal-scoring potential.
3 Home and away record
One of the most frustrating things for a soccer fan is watching their team dominate at home while losing constantly on the road. Some teams just don’t seem to travel well during certain seasons.
Perhaps it is the buzz of a full home crowd, or maybe it’s a cold night away up north that causes these results. Either way, it’s something to consider when placing a bet.
4 Head-to-head performances
Historical records shouldn’t mean anything, but they frequently do. Clubs can go decades without beating their rivals while others seem to share out the glory almost equally. Spurs for instance couldn’t win at Stamford Bridge for love or money. Then finally, after a 28-year winless run, they beat Chelsea by 3 goals to 1.
Although these statistics eventually turn on their head, there are many instances of teams dominating in head-to-head performances. Perhaps don’t rely on these stats in derbies though. Fierce rivalries bring out unpredictability and quite often end in bookings and rash refereeing decisions.
And remember, soccer betting isn’t just about the EPL. Other leagues can offer some tantalising opportunities also. It is worth checking out all supported leagues when looking for tips and opportunities.
5 Player performance
Team performance is a key metric no doubt. But, so is individual performance.
One player can change a game, and several footballers have the talent to do this frequently. If Erling Haaland was playing, would you bet against him scoring?
Footballers need confidence, and sometimes this dips. Some players can bounce back from a penalty miss and score a hat trick in the next game. But, others may struggle for several matches.
Statistics such as assists, shots on target, and goals scored, are critical here. A player who is regularly hitting shots on target but not scoring may come good sooner than later.
6 Injuries
Not exactly a stat but worth consideration. Regularly injured players may be more likely to be withdrawn. Or a weakened squad could suffer a heavy defeat. Some players have a history of being pulled mid-game. When this happens it can impact tactics and performance for the rest of the game.
The most Premier League wins should be an indication of long-term success. But, a squad can be decimated by injuries and struggle during crucial must-win games.
7 Possession and passing
The ability to control a game is vital for winning points. High possession rates can indicate dominance. However, this isn’t always the case. For those interested in statistical anomalies, the recent Tottenham v West Ham friendly is worth mentioning.
Tottenham had 71% possession and 30 shots. West Ham made 4 shots and won 3 goals to 2.
Nevertheless, statistics do help fans identify teams who are most likely to win. Accurate passing and strong possession may point to dominance on the pitch. It just doesn’t always guarantee a win.
8 Shots and conversion rates
There are different types of bets and different strategies that suit different bettors. Some people use the Martingale staking method when placing bets for example. Others prefer to keep to a rigid wager each match day.
And some might like to go for the first goalscorer or the last scorer. You may analyse teams and individuals statistics for shooting and scoring. Statistically speaking, the teams that shoot the most are likely to score the most, if they are on target.
9 Discipline
A statistic that may often get overlooked is discipline. Players such as Roy Keane had more desire to win than the average footballer. But, that same ferociousness led to 7 red cards. Joey Barton was capable of hitting the back of the net but was often more likely to hit a player on the other team.
Poor discipline leads to unpredictable moments and bookings. Teams rarely become stronger with the loss of key players, so discipline is a stat worth checking out.
Summary
Football is great fun as a player or a spectator. It brings excitement, tension, and sometimes disappointment. But, relegated teams bounce back, surprise results constantly happen, and goals can come from seemingly nowhere.
Statistics can be found on the net to help decisions when picking winners. But, No one should ever gamble with more than they are prepared to lose.