As we head inexorably towards the November election, it’s shaping up to be one of the most interesting ever. At the start of September, the Democrats are ahead in the polls with many political commentators already predicting Donald Trump will be a one-term president. Some even believe that if the numbers don’t go his way, he may even refuse to accept the result. If it does turn out to be a truly astonishing election, it certainly won’t be without precedent, as these three examples from the past only go to show.

1948. Harry S. Truman v Thomas Dewey

If President Trump was looking for a prime example of why the odds for the next US President, which have him trailing Joe Biden, don't signify a certainty in the result, he only has to go back to 1946. Admittedly, the odds in this election are far closer than they were 74 years ago, with the already small difference between them for  Trump and his challenger appearing to narrow all the time.

That said, just like the present President, Harry S. Truman was lagging behind in the opinion polls with the New York Governor Thomas Dewey way out in front. In fact, Truman only had the support of a third of adult Americans – bad news in a two-horse race. In the final poll held before election day, Dewey was showing a clear 5 percentage points lead, so it was a disconsolate Truman that went to bed after the polls had closed, resigned to his defeat.

But he was woken at 4 am to be told that he had won. The victory was made even sweeter as a number of newspapers had gone to print before the result was announced proclaiming the presumed, and incorrect, Dewey win.

1960. John F. Kennedy v Richard Nixon

"John F. Kennedy" (Public Domain) by Worlds Direction

There was an electoral earthquake on the way in the 1960 election that few had anticipated. Republican vice-president and war hero Richard M. Nixon was pitted against the young and inexperienced senator John F. Kennedy. But it was arguably a televised debate that tipped the election  in Kennedy’s favour. To the 70 million Americans who tuned in to the first of the four debates, the younger man, wearing an eye-catching blue suit and talking directly to the camera, came across as dynamic and optimistic. Nixon, on the other hand, looked pale, drawn, and unengaging.

So, when the final counting was done, Kennedy clinched victory by the narrowest of margins – just 119,000 votes.

1972. Richard Nixon v George McGovern

The South Dakota senator George McGovern was looking like a very likely candidate to deny Nixon a second shot at the White House. Until that is, he chose senator Thomas Eagleton as a running mate.

The seemingly winning partnership was holed under the waterline when it was revealed that Eagleton had a history of clinical depression, having been hospitalized for it in the past. Today, with a greater understanding of mental health, this might not be so significant. But the 1970s was a time when the stigma meant the Democrat campaign crumbled. So, Nixon did eventually make it to President, but the less said about that the better.

So, here’s hoping for a less contentious and more clear-cut election result come November. It’s probably going to be close – but that’s what that makes for an exciting contest.